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Anybody
who plays poker will find themselves in bad shape on
occasion – its simply part of the game. And you’re
never in worse shape than when you get all of your money
in and your opponent turns over pocket aces. In most
cases, you should be prepared to report to the rail, but
there are always exceptions to the rule.
Take
my experience from the 2005 Degree Poker Championship, a
1,000 runner free roll that awarded $100,000 and a free
seat into the WSOP Main Event to the winner. For the
first hour, I fought tooth and nail to stay afloat,
carefully increasing my starting stack of $2,000 to
$2,500. Then, in the small blind, I looked down to find
two kings. Yum yum. It folded around to me, and I put in
a large raise. I would normally limp and try to trap in
this situation, but the big blind was a loose cannon who
had picked up some chips early and was now playing every
hand. Right on cue, he reraised me all in, for about the
third time in an hour. I called in a heartbeat and
turned over my kings, only to have the big blind flip up
pocket aces! 5 cards later I was out wandering in the
Niagara night, contemplating taking a plunge over the
majestic falls.
When
an opponent is holding pocket aces, having any smaller
pocket pair is a recipe for disaster. Although pocket
kings and pocket aces may seem close in rank, they are a
world apart when it comes to winning percentage. If you
hold kings and your opponent holds aces, your chance of
winning is only around 18%, less than 1 in 4. You are
actually better off taking a small pair like 44 or 55
against aces, as your winning percentage increases to
about 20% (as all of the potential straight cards are
still live).
How
about taking AK up against AA? How about sticking your
tongue up a sweaty fat man’s ass? This is one of the
worst positions to be in poker, as your AK is completely
dominated in almost every way. There are remote straight
or flush possibilities, but you’re in bad shape if you
need to hit something like that. The numbers? Even AK
suited has only an 11.5% chance of winning against the 2
aces of the other suits.
What
hand, then, has the best chance of cracking pocket aces?
It’s not a pair and it’s not a hand containing an
ace, meaning it could only be a medium suited connector.
So without further ado, I give you the hand that will
crack pocket aces more than any other, the suited 89.
With all of it’s straight and flush possibilities
working, in addition to the potential of flopping
something like 2 pair or a set, the 89 suited will crack
aces 22.5% of the time, or almost 1 in 4. There’s
something to be said for that, and this is one of the
reasons why many top players love playing medium suited
connectors.
Consider
a situation I like to call the “squeeze”. You’re
at the table and an opponent in early position raises.
Another opponent elects to flat call, and it folds
around to you with 89 suited. You decide to push all in,
“squeezing” the probable dead money of the opponent
who flat called (it stands to reason he would have
reraised with a big hand), and putting all of the
pressure on the original raiser. He can now only call
with only the biggest of hands, and a good percentage of
the time he will fold. Even if he finds AA and calls,
you’re only a 4 to 1 dog with your 89 suited – which
means you’re probably getting the right price with all
of the dead money factored in. Over time, this type of
play will show a positive expectation. Just another
little example of the strange power of the 89 suited,
absolutely my favourite hand.
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